ONE DAY TO DRAFT HILLARY
Time: 12:00AM Friday, August 12th
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Hillary R. Clinton
c/o Friends of Hillary
1900 M Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Run, Hillary, run!
The case for why she should challenge President Obama in the 2012 Democratic primaries
If I were a Democrat (and I’m only posing as one here!), this would be why I think Hillary Clinton should challenge Barack Obama in 2012.
To begin, the president is in deep political trouble. I presented some basic economic indicators earlier that show the historical comparisons indicating that Obama is in Jimmy Carter territory. These are crude measures, of course. But more sophisticated forecast models, such as Yale economist Ray Fair’s, which uses per capita growth of real Gross Domestic Product during the three quarters preceding the election; the growth in inflation during the incumbent’s term; and the number of quarters during the incumbent’s term in which real GDP grows by more than 3.2 percent to predict the popular vote, now show Obama winning slightly less than 50 percent of 2012 popular vote. Given current economic projections, there’s not likely to be any more strong growth quarters between now and November 2012, meaning the odds for Obama’s reelection are probably not going to get better. To be sure, most of the political science forecast models don’t kick in until a year from now, so it’s a bit early to rely on them. But if Clinton is going to run, she can’t wait. And right now Obama is very vulnerable to a strong Republican challenger.
Of course, the fundamentals won’t change if she’s running. But note that the forecast models aren’t predicting a Republican blowout — they are forecasting a race that is, at this point, too close to call. That means marginal changes in turnout among key groups are crucial. Here’s where Hillary has the advantage.
To begin, her stint as secretary of state has done wonders for her approval rating, as indicated by Gallup poll surveys dating back to her time in the White House. While the president, mired deep in the political muck of Washington politics, sees his approval falling to 40 percent, Hillary’s has climbed close to 70 percent — and even higher in other surveys. Yes, this is partly an artifact of her position, which places her above the fray of domestic politics, and yes it will fall if she enters the race. But the fact remains that her public profile has been bolstered in the last several years, and she enters the race with that advantage. Indeed, she can use that non-partisan vantage point to frame her decision to run: It’s not about politics — it’s about the future of this country both here and abroad.